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How US and European banks won Q2 with three strategic moves

Despite trade tensions and rate uncertainty, leading institutions delivered a tactical performance that further supported share price rises.


In brief
  • Banks turned Q2 uncertainty into advantage through cost optimization, tactical capital markets positioning and proactive risk management.
  • The results demonstrate how strategic execution and disciplined positioning can transform geopolitical headwinds into outperformance.

This article was originally published on LinkedIn.

In a quarter marked by persistent geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, US and European banks demonstrated the strategic value of disciplined positioning and operational agility.

The sector delivered 4% revenue growth1, supported by both net interest income and fee revenues. While interest rates have begun to decline, the slower-than-expected pace has allowed banks to lock in higher yields and extend net interest income growth, with strong capital markets performance adding further momentum.

This performance reflects more than cyclical strength: it underscores banking leaders’ ability to capitalize on market dynamics through three distinct approaches: cost optimization to fund technology investment, tactical capital markets positioning and proactive risk management that turned potential headwinds into measurable competitive advantage.

Investors rewarded this execution, sending global bank shares up by 25% year to date and 35% since the post-tariff trough.

Here’s how each approach played out: 

1. Cost transformation creates capacity for tech investment

Banks maintained their disciplined balancing act – cutting costs strategically to fund future technology investments. By prioritizing efficiency gains to create investment capacity, banking leaders were able to capitalize on emerging opportunities without compromising near-term performance.
 

The artificial intelligence (AI) narrative has sharpened decisively over the past year. Banks have moved beyond experimentation to deploy use cases tied to measurable business outcomes such as customer engagement, operational efficiency and productivity gains. US banks, in particular, highlighted growing interest in agentic AI as they explore advanced applications with minimal human input.
 

Digital assets emerged as a second priority following recent US regulatory developments (pdf) (via EY.com US)2. Several banks reported renewed investment in stablecoin-based solutions for cross-border payments and tokenized deposit infrastructure, with globally-focused institutions more vocal about their ambitions than domestic peers.
 

With technology investments broadening and pressure building to demonstrate tangible progress, turning this carefully created capacity into measurable impact will be a key differentiator going forward.
 

2. Capital markets positioning pays off

Banks executed well-timed positioning that transformed a volatile quarter into competitive advantage. When early uncertainty around US trade policy and market volatility emerged, banks sharply reset investment banking revenue expectations – a stance that created upside potential when conditions improved.
 

This proved prescient. As trade tensions eased and equity markets rebounded in June, banks were well-positioned to capture the recovery in client confidence that drove meaningful pickup in merger & acquisition (M&A) activity, delivering stronger-than-expected results, particularly for US banks that had managed expectations conservatively.
 

Prior investments in trading infrastructure became a key differentiator, enabling banks to absorb elevated volumes when persistent market turbulence forced clients to recalibrate portfolios.
 

Trading revenues grew 17% year-on-year to reach their highest levels since the first half of 2009, as banks enhanced capacity to reinforce their role as critical partners helping clients manage risk across asset classes.
 

Looking ahead, banks are set to maintain this disciplined approach. With announced global M&A volumes tracking 30% above last year, they see cautious optimism as boardrooms push forward with transactions despite ongoing volatility.
 

3. Proactive risk management proves prescient

Banks demonstrated foresight in their approach to credit risk as the first full reporting period under new tariff regimes unfolded. Anticipating potential stress from trade disruptions, banks had increased their loan loss buffers in the prior quarter, preparing for credit challenges that many expected would emerge.
 

However, no deterioration in credit quality materialized. So, while banks were right to prepare for potential stress, the actual impact proved more manageable than feared.
 

Proactive client engagement provided crucial intelligence throughout this period. By staying close to borrowers, banking leaders gained early visibility into how corporates were adapting to shifting trade conditions. These conversations confirmed that most clients had adjusted to new supply chain realities and were gaining clarity on cross-border impacts.
 

Reflecting the more stable outlook, analysts have started to revise full-year provision estimates downward by 2% for US banks and 1% for European peers.

2025 outlook

The sector’s robust Q2 performance was mirrored in a shift in tone from banking leaders – moving from caution in Q1 to quiet confidence in Q2. Several banks upgraded their full-year guidance (with two in five raising net interest income forecasts), while others signaled greater confidence in hitting existing targets.

This confidence reflects the payoff from Q2’s strategic execution. Banks’ disciplined cost transformation continues to create investment capacity, with institutions remaining intensely focused on modernizing their technology infrastructure while balancing cost discipline with efforts to enhance client experience and unlock long-term value. The capital markets positioning that delivered Q2 outperformance has positioned banks to capitalize on improving M&A pipelines. Meanwhile, the proactive risk management approach that proved prescient during the tariff transition provides a foundation for navigating ongoing uncertainties.

As investment grows, so will the scrutiny. The challenge now is to clearly demonstrate return on investment to a more discerning investor base — turning the strategic capacity created through cost discipline into measurable competitive advantage.

Despite geopolitical crosscurrents and the slow march toward lower rates, the sector appears well-positioned to weather the transition, having demonstrated in Q2 that strategic execution can transform uncertainty into opportunity.


Summary

US and European banks delivered strong Q2 results through three strategic moves that transformed uncertainty into outperformance. First, banks optimized costs to create capacity for technology investments, advancing AI applications and digital asset capabilities. Second, they executed tactical capital markets positioning, resetting expectations conservatively before capitalizing on June's market recovery, with trading revenues reaching their highest levels since 2009. Third, proactive risk management proved prescient as banks prepared for tariff-related credit stress that never materialized. This disciplined execution drove 4% revenue growth and positioned institutions well for 2025 despite ongoing geopolitical and rate uncertainties.

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