Operational complexity reshapes mining’s risk landscape for 2026

• Short term and operational issues come to the fore as miners deal with uncertainty and reduced risk appetite
• Operational complexity, productivity and cost reduction top agenda as miners prioritize cash
• Digital, innovation and AI will be key to unlocking the transformation of the industry

The mining and metals sector faces a new era of unpredictability, as operational complexity emerges as the top risk for 2026, according to the EY Top 10 Business Risks and Opportunities survey.

Based on responses from 500 senior mining and metals executives worldwide, study results indicate the sector’s sharp pivot away from external and strategic issues to short-term operational factors impacting productivity and costs. The spotlight on operational complexity, topping the risk radar in its first appearance - underscores the pressure to deliver predictable output as mines get deeper, ore grades decline, and costs increase.

Paul Mitchell, EY Global Mining & Metals Leader, says:

“Operational complexity is the focus, not just because of uncertainty but because the sector recognizes it must disrupt traditional ways of operating to win. As mines age or are replaced, complexity will inevitably increase, an issue exacerbated by a need to control costs and improve productivity. But miners that use this moment as an opportunity to accelerate innovation, including through the utilization of digital and AI will position themselves for growth when certainty returns.”

Predictable output is critical to maintaining shareholder confidence and securing capital.

Paul says: “Investors are backing a switch to growth. With big ticket M&A proving difficult, miners are instead focused on getting the most out of existing assets, enhancing productivity, capital discipline and technology adoption to meet demand and take advantage of higher commodity prices. The proposed Anglo-Teck merger underscores how strategic imperatives, particularly in copper, will still drive significant deals.”

Miners are also pursuing bolt-on acquisitions, joint ventures and alternative financing models, including royalties, streaming, sustainable finance and government incentives.

A shift towards growth mindset (Capital ranked #3)

Mining companies may be focused on short-term issues now, but this is partly to lay the foundations for long-term growth. For the third year in a row, miners have raised capital allocation to growth while reducing returns to shareholders. Both traditional and non-traditional investors back the approach, particularly in copper where a supply gap offers once-in-a-generation opportunities.

License to operate (LTO) remains a focus as expectations increase (ranked #5)

LTO is still a priority for miners as companies prepare to meet growing expectations around performance. Miners will be most effective by focusing on local communities, particularly as reduced government spending in some regions means communities increasingly look to corporate citizens to step up.

The rise of resource nationalism also emphasizes the strategic importances of strong LTO. The EY survey reveals miners expect governments to take more control over a wide range of issues, particularly around sustainability and governance.

Paul says: “In some markets, ESG issues have slipped down the agenda, but miners cannot let this compromise their commitment to LTO, particularly their relationships with local communities. It shapes everything from permitting to workforce, to capital and growth. Miners needs to ensure they do what is right, not just what is regulated - protecting social capital and creating a legacy beyond life of mine.”

Digital, innovation and AI key to industry transformation (ranked #8)

AI is now a top priority for investment in the mining sector. One in five executives (21%) plan to increase AI investment by more than 20% in the next year, targeting productivity, safety and cost efficiency.

To date, gains from digital and AI have been realized mostly within core operations – more value will come from an end-to-end approach that leverages a unified data and AI backbone. Successful digital initiatives are closely linked to company strategy, underpinned by strong governance, and enabled through clear, connected technology and data systems. 

Paul says: ”Miners move up the AI maturity curve, they should remain focused on making sure the technology allows the right people to work together, and that it is used responsibly to boost productivity, safety, and sustainability.

“AI isn’t something you just set up and forget about in mining. The companies that will get ahead are the ones that align digital initiatives, invest in good people, and build strong foundations for new ideas. It’s about building a workplace where technology helps people do their jobs better and brings real results across the business.”

Additional risks shaping the landscape

The survey also points to three further challenges:

• Geopolitics: Despite tariffs and export restrictions affecting supply chains for critical minerals, Geopolitics has fallen to #7 (from #3) on the Index.
  
  Paul says: “Miners are accustomed to geopolitical volatility and, because mines cannot be relocated, they are adept at navigating relationships with government. That said, miners will need to maintain vigilance considering the fast pace of change – disrupted trade flows have the potential to shift geopolitical power.”

• Workforce: A worsening skills crisis has pushed Workforce to #6 (from #13). Miners’ inability to fill key roles, including in planning, engineering, sustainability and closure, is already having an impact on productivity, threatening future supply and potentially increasing safety risks.
  
  
• Sustainability: More than half of mining leaders have delayed or reassessed commitments, with only 56% confident they will meet nature-positive obligations. Sustainability fell from #2 to #9 in this year’s Index.

Paul says: “Mining leaders are operating in a more complex environment than ever before. From skills shortages and tariff tensions to sustainability expectations, transformation is no longer optional. Companies that adapt quickly, embedding digital innovation, building community trust and rethinking growth strategies, will set the pace for the next decade.”

For more information on the latest mining and metals developments and to view the full report, visit here.

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