Geopolitics tops the CEO agenda as leaders tighten focus on profitability, AI and strategic deals

• Geopolitical risk reshapes the boardroom agenda, as CEOs prioritize disciplined growth and profitability amid structural global uncertainty.
• AI focus shifts from adoption to enterprise impact as 80% of CEOs increase AI spend - though regulation and skills gaps threaten to slow progress.
• Dealmaking becomes a strategic accelerator, as CEOs use M&A and divestments to strengthen AI and technology capabilities.

CEOs are doubling down on disciplined growth and long-term transformation through AI and strategic transactions despite heightened geopolitical risk and macroeconomic uncertainty. This is according to the latest EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook Survey, a quarterly survey of 1,200 global CEOs across 21 countries.

In an environment marked by sustained uncertainty and overlapping external shocks, CEOs are responding not by retreating, but by prioritizing profitability and resilience with targeted growth, drawing on lessons learned from previous crises.

Geopolitical landscape reshapes growth priorities

Unsurprisingly, geopolitical uncertainty has taken center stage in the CEO agenda with more than half of respondents (56%) identifying it as the most significant risk to their business over the next 12 months, up 28 percentage points since September 2025.

Respondents cite that the impact is tangible, with nearly half (46%) reporting that sustained energy price shocks would create significant headwinds for their organization, underlining how geopolitical volatility is translating directly into operational and financial risk.

However, unlike previous crises, CEOs are not viewing current macroeconomic volatility as a reason to retrench. Instead, they are reinforcing resilience and protecting near‑term performance by being more selective about where they invest - signalling a shift towards disciplined growth that is targeted, risk-aware in a rapidly changing environment, and anchored in profitability and resilience.

Eighty two percent of respondents report that they are prioritizing sustainable long-term growth and a clear path to profitability over rapid market expansion. This pragmatic response sees leaders prioritize financial flexibility, streamlined operations, their talent base and a greater reliance on technology to drive productivity, alongside continued investment in digital and AI capabilities.

Andrea Guerzoni, Global Vice Chair, EY-Parthenon says:

“Despite the “fog of war”, CEOs are not scaling back. Drawing from experiences over the last decade, risk and uncertainty is now more embedded in their decision making and they are sharpening their focus and ambition on where and how they invest for growth. Leaders recognize that instability is now structural rather than episodic and in response they are prioritizing adaptability, market continuity and long-term growth through disciplined execution.”

AI shifts from adoption to enterprise scale impact

Whether AI valuations prove to signal a bubble or not, AI’s advantage is real and remains the most consistent strategic priority across regions and sectors. Eighty percent of CEO respondents plan to increase AI investment in 2026, while just 1% expect to reduce spending this year. Nearly half (48%) of respondents are pursuing acquisitions or divestments to accelerate access to technology or AI capabilities.

Respondents in fact report that AI is now starting to deliver tangible, enterprise impact in growth driving areas such as customer value creation (42%) and innovation (40%), alongside operations (41%), and strategy (41%). Crucially, it remains a driver of CEOs’ confidence with 83% surveyed saying that they are optimistic about their company’s investment plans in emerging technologies.

However, challenges remain. While AI is delivering tangible enterprise impact, fragmented and evolving regulatory frameworks are emerging as a key constraint on scale. Thirty percent of CEO respondents say AI regulatory frameworks are increasing compliance and operational complexity, while 38% cite fragmentation and the evolving nature of regulation as a barrier to scaling AI effectively.

Talent strategy pivots as AI drives reskilling

Despite public fear that AI will displace human labor, as AI investment accelerates, CEOs are instead reshaping workforce strategies to unlock value rather than reduce headcount. While nearly all respondents (99%) expect AI to change their workforce strategy over the next three years, only one in five (20%) say that AI will lead to a reduction in hiring, down from 46% in 2024.

Rather than viewing AI as a substitute for talent, leaders are positioning it as a productivity and growth enabler, with 42% of respondents anticipating large-scale reskilling and upskilling of existing employees, and 44% actively redesigning roles to combine human and AI capabilities.

However, talent constraints remain one of the most significant barriers to capturing AI value. One in five (20%) of CEOs surveyed cite limited AI and data skills within the existing workforce and insufficient leadership capability to manage AI-driven change as their top people related challenges, reinforcing the need to invest not only in technology but in leadership, skills and operating models.

Guerzoni says: “CEOs do not currently see AI as a substitute for human labor. As AI becomes embedded across businesses, demand is rising for talent that combines deep domain expertise with AI literacy. The real risk is not widespread job losses, but a growing skills gap. Without sustained investment in reskilling and workforce transformation, organizations will struggle to realize the full value AI can deliver.”

Portfolio decisions driven by AI and long-term strategic fit

Despite this uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, CEOs continue to see transactions as a critical lever for transformation and growth, but with a sharper focus on strategic fit and capability building rather than on scale. Eighty-nine percent of respondents planning to pursue M&A say they expect their own deal appetite to increase over the next 12 months, even as dealmaking becomes more selective.

The US remains the primary destination for planned M&A activity, followed by India, the UK, Canada and Germany.

Notably, AI capability is shaping portfolio design and capital allocation decisions. Nearly half of survey respondents (48%) say the ability to enhance technology or AI capability is the most important factor influencing decisions around acquisitions or divestments, closely followed by strategic fit with long term growth priorities (47%).

Over the coming year, CEOs plan to actively pursue a range of transaction strategies, with survey respondents pursuing M&A (62%), focusing on strategic alliances (57%), exploring joint ventures (45%) and expecting to undertake divestments (42%) as they redesign their portfolio to adapt to short-term disruption while remaining focused on long‑term growth.

Guerzoni says: “CEOs are approaching deals as a strategic lever for longterm growth while retaining the flexibility to adapt in the near-term. While heightened geopolitical conflict and economic uncertainty may temporarily slow activity, confidence remains strong. Crucially, this is not about opportunistic expansion, but disciplined portfolio decisions, with CEOs prioritizing transactions based on strategic alignment and sustainable growth.”

To read the full report, please visit: https://www.ey.com/en_gl/ceo/ceo-outlook-global-report

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About the survey

On behalf of the global EY organization, FT Longitude, the specialist research and content marketing division of the Financial Times Group, conducted an anonymous online survey of 1,200 CEOs from large companies around the world in March and April 2026. The survey aims to provide valuable insights on the main trends and developments impacting the world’s leading companies, as well as business leaders’ expectations for future growth and long-term value creation. Respondents represented 21 countries (Brazil, Canada, Mexico, the United States, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Australia, China, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea) and five industries (consumer and health; financial services; industrials and energy; infrastructure; and technology, media and telecoms). Surveyed companies’ annual global revenues were as follows: less than US$500 million (20%), US$500 million to US$999.9 million (20%), US$1 billion to US$4.9 billion (30%) and greater than US$5 billion (30%).