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Economy Watch
Economy Watch provides an in-depth review of salient developments in India’s macroeconomy and economic policy in a global context.
It has established itself as a thought leadership publication, providing valuable inputs for policymakers in the central and state governments, academicians, industry and businesses and other stakeholders.
Economy Watch was launched for public distribution soon after demonetization. Since then more than 90 issues have been published.
It covers various macro-fiscal dimensions of the Indian economy including growth, inflation, government finances, external trade, monetary and financial sectors. It places India in a comparative economic framework using selected developed and developing countries.
Two innovative indices have been developed to capture changes in aggregate demand and macroeconomic imbalances in the Indian economy. The analysis in the Economy Watch is based on monthly, quarterly and annual data sourced from national and international sources.
Every month, a focused theme of contemporary economic importance is identified for a deep and insightful analysis which provides useful inputs and recommendations.
Key highlights for November 2024
- Manufacturing and services PMI recovered to 57.5 and 58.5 respectively in October 2024 from their respective levels of 56.5 and 57.7 in September 2024.
- Led by improved growth across all major sub-industries, IIP growth recovered to 3.1% in September 2024 from a contraction of (-)0.1% in August 2024.
- CPI inflation increased to a 14-month high of 6.2% in October 2024, whereas core CPI inflation remained below 4%, although increasing to a 10-month high of 3.7%.
- WPI inflation remained low at 2.4% in October 2024, although rising from 1.8% in September 2024 led by a surge in inflation in tomatoes.
- As per the CGA, GoI’s GTR showed a growth of 12.0% during April-September FY25 with growth in direct taxes at 13.6% and that in indirect taxes at 8.4%.
- GoI’s total expenditure showed a contraction of (-)0.4% during April-September FY25, with revenue expenditure growing by 4.2% and capital expenditure contracting by (-)15.4%.
- GoI’s fiscal and revenue deficits during April-September FY25 stood at their unprecedented low levels of 29.4% and 12.8% of their respective annual BE.
- Growth in gross bank credit eased to a three-month low of 14.4% in September 2024 from 15.0% in August 2024.
- Growth in merchandise exports picked up to 17.2% in October 2024 from 0.5% in September 2024 reflecting higher year end demand. Merchandise imports growth increased to 3.9% in October 2024 from 1.6% in September 2024 partly due to rising volume of crude imports.
- Merchandise trade deficit widened to US$27.1 billion in October 2024 from US$20.8 billion in September 2024.
- In September 2024, the deficit on account of trade of goods and services fell to a six-month low of US$4.7 billion.
- Net FPI inflows surged to US$9.7 billion in September 2024, its highest level since November 2020. Net FDI witnessed outflows amounting to US$3.1 billion in September 2024.
- Average global crude price increased to US$74/bbl. in October 2024 from US$72.4/bbl. in September 2024, although remaining well below the 1HFY25 average of US$80.7/bbl.
- The IMF projected global growth to ease to 3.2% in 2024, with India’s FY25 growth forecasted at 7%.
- Towards building a Viksit Bharat, we expect general government expenditure to reach 30% of GDP by FY2031, 31.5% by FY2036 and reach 35% by FY2048, driven primarily by an augmented tax-GDP ratio along with downward adjustment in the current fiscal deficit to GDP ratio.
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How India can frame its fiscal architecture to realize Viksit Bharat
Discover the roadmap to Viksit Bharat. Learn about the necessary government size, tax reforms, and fiscal discipline to achieve India's development goals.
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BRICS+ group's rising trade share challenges G7 dominance. Explore the shift towards a multipolar economic system and implications for global currencies.
Can BRICS+ play a key role in shaping future global economic policy
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Sustaining India’s long-term economic growth: strengthening role of government finances
Discover the crucial role of government finances in sustaining India's growth and how fiscal strategies can propel long-term economic stability.
Union Budget 2024-25: Accelerating fiscal consolidation for sustained growth
Union Budget 2024-25: Drive fiscal consolidation for lower interest rates, boost private investment, and job growth.
Incentive insights: decoding state incentives in Gujarat
Learn how to decode state incentives in Gujarat with EY's podcast. Unearth new insights & strategies. Listen today!
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Budgeting for balancing growth and fiscal discipline
Discover how FY25 Interim budget has struck a fine balance between sustaining growth and achieving fiscal consolidation. Learn more.
Interim Budget 2024: impact on the macroeconomics of Indian economy
Explore EY's analysis of the Interim Budget 2024's impact on India's economy. Dive deep into macroeconomics! Listen now!
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Interim Budget 2024: key policy announcements and their impact
Explore EY's Budget Insights Podcast, Ep.4 on Interim Budget 2024, for expert understanding on policy impact. Read more for key insights.
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Interim Budget 2024: impact on individuals and India Inc.
Explore EY's deep dive into the Interim Budget 2024's impact on individuals and India Inc. Boost your financial literacy. Tune in now!
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Interim Budget 2024: tax navigation, BEPS 2.0 and energy transition
Navigate tax, BEPS 2 and energy transition with EY's analysis on Interim Budget 2024. Enhance your understanding. Listen now!
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How FY25 Budget can tackle fiscal imbalances and signal sustainability
Discover how the government should specify its fiscal consolidation strategy in the FY25 budget with a view to meeting the FRBM targets. Learn more about interim budget 2024.
Interim Budget 2024: balancing growth and fiscal deficit
Explore how the Interim Budget 2024 balances growth and fiscal deficit in EY's podcast. Gain unique budget insights. Tune in now!
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16th Finance Commission: The benefits of brevity in Terms of Reference
The Terms of Reference (ToR) of the 16th Finance Commission provide it flexibility to define the scope of its work, approach and methodology. Learn more.
Incentives by States to bolster the growth of the tourism sector
Know about state incentives boosting India's tourism sector with EY. Decode complex strategies with ease. Start listening now!
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Decoding India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.6%
Decode India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.6% with EY's podcast. Gain a deeper understanding of economic trends. Tune in today!
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How India’s FY25 interim budget could prepare ground for the main budget
Discover the groundwork laid by India's FY25 interim budget, shaping expectations for the main budget. Key insights on economic strategies and policies.
Budget 2023 and its impact on individuals
In this podcast, Bhavesh Thakkar, Partner at EY India's Tax and Regulatory Services shares insights on the policy's coverage, eligibility criteria for incentives, and its unique approach toward incentivizing investments in emerging technologies.
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COVID-19 and beyond: growth, recovery, and fiscal challenges across Indian states
Discover how COVID-19 had adversely affected the Indian economy with a differentiated impact at the state-level. Learn more.
19th Annual EY India Tax Workshop 2024
Register for India Tax Workshop 2024. Learn more about the tax function.
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What are the emerging trends in Model Risk Management (MRM)?
EY highlights how India’s growth prospects are bright, with its potential role in developing infrastructure, manufacturing, and services in expanded G-20.
India — towards becoming the third largest economy in the world
India's rapid economic growth propels it among top global economies. Explore its upward trajectory and opportunities.
Why the 16th Finance Commission must prioritize restoration of fiscal balance
EY highlights how Finance Commissions have handled resource sharing between center and states in a relatively stable manner.
How El Nino can impact India’s economic growth prospects for FY2024
EY highlights how El Nino is associated with deficient southwest monsoons, adversely impacting India’s agricultural output. Learn more about El Nino in India.
How India can align its policies basis varied demographics across states to optimize growth
Discover how India’s demographic dividend can unleash powerful growth-promoting forces in the coming years. Learn more about the Impact of the ageing population on the economy.
How digital transformation will help India accelerate its growth in the coming years
Find out how the growing digitalization of India’s economy is a major factor in sustaining the robust growth of India’s unfolding growth story in the 21st century.
Reaping the demographic dividend
Find out how size and age of workforce of India will play a significant role in its economic growth in the coming years. Learn more about the demographic dividend in India.
Fiscal consolidation in India: charting a credible glide path
Find out how a reduced fiscal deficit will help India make more investable resources available for the private sector. Learn more about fiscal consolidation in India.
How the states can help India achieve the US$5 trillion target by FY28
Find out how state governments need to consciously undertake measures to increase their capital expenditure. Learn more about $5 trillion economy.
In a year of lower growth, Union Budget 2023-24 roots for infrastructure expansion
Discover how FY24 Union Budget lays a solid foundation for robust medium to long-term growth. Learn more about the budget 2023 analysis.
How India can fill the credit gap to fuel economic growth
Discover how debt has played a crucial role in driving economic growth. Learn more about credit gaps in India.
Digitalizing India: a force to reckon with
Discover how digitization in India and its adoption by people, provides India with a unique competitive advantage of not only reducing the cost of doing business.
How India is emerging as the world’s technology and services hub
Discover how India can become a technology hub in the world. Learn more about it in the latest report India@100.
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