The productivity dividend will remain an ambition unless CEOs can show that AI creates more value than it consumes. Only 16% of CEOs have detailed, real-time visibility into AI costs and high confidence in assessing return on investment. A further 56% have reliable visibility into most costs and reasonable confidence in returns, while a significant number of CEOs still face important gaps in their understanding of the costs and returns from AI.
AI can create capacity, but only CEOs can decide how to redeploy it. Without changes to the operating model, the benefits are likely to be lost to complexity and wasteful friction. As Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, notes, “The pace of adoption will depend not only on what the technology can do, but whether the value created by each token exceeds its cost.”
That discipline requires leaders to capture the full cost of AI. Model fees, cloud infrastructure and data are only the starting point. Integration, cybersecurity, governance, process change and training can materially alter the investment case, as can running new and legacy processes in parallel. Returns should be measured in output, unit cost, cycle time, quality, revenue or capital efficiency. Otherwise, pilots may meet their technical targets while weakening the economics as they scale.
Will AI change the work before it changes the workforce?
The workforce implications are part of the same calculation. Four in five CEOs believe that, over the next three years, AI will have a greater effect on roles, skills and how work is organized than on workforce size.
As AI technology advances, the range of duties it is trusted to take on independently will expand. As a result, roles will increasingly be defined not by the tasks associated with them, but by the knowledge requirements and constraints of their associated contexts. In some contexts, it will be possible for agents to accomplish tasks and move across contexts easily, allowing for the unbundling of tasks, reorganization of workflows and consolidation of roles. In other contexts, the consolidation of roles may be less likely, but the balance of tasks associated with those roles may shift. Because contextual demands vary across an organization, these changes will not occur in a fixed sequence. Instead, role redesign, workflow changes, job creation and elimination may happen concurrently and at different rates within the same organization. Ultimately, however, advances in AI technology point toward a reality where organizations can sustain growth with fewer employees than comparable growth required in the past.
The crunch question is whether the way organizations get work done can adapt at the rate of technological development to realize this future. Almost half of CEOs (47%) say their organization is not developing skills quickly enough to keep pace with AI innovation, while 72% believe skills shortages will become a greater barrier to growth than access to capital within three years. Reskilling already ranks among the leading contributors to productivity gains, cited by 33% of CEOs. Yet only 15% say productivity gains typically fund reskilling and capability building. A key risk is that talent investment falls behind technology investment.