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Why model risk management is entering a new phase

Model risk management is evolving, driven by changing regulatory guidance, shifting framework scope and rapid advances in AI.


In brief
  • Revised guidance issued by the Federal Reserve Board gives banks more flexibility for model governance.
  • The next phase of model risk management is more risk-based, technology-enabled, integrated and globally aware.
  • Effective model risk management can help banks manage complexity without adding unnecessary governance burden.

A combination of revised regulatory guidance and expanding model use is reshaping model risk management, the process of identifying, assessing and managing risks associated with models and model-driven decisions.

 

Since US banking regulators first issued comprehensive guidance on model risk management in 2011, models have become increasingly embedded across banking operations. However, the growing use of models in areas such as financial crime compliance, cybersecurity and AI-enabled applications has created new governance and oversight challenges for banks. Revised interagency guidance issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 2026 promises to usher in a new era, giving banks greater flexibility while also placing more responsibility on them to establish effective governance and controls.

 

Unlike the earlier guidance that provided more prescriptive standards on how model risk management should be performed, the new guidance emphasizes principles and risk-based assessments. As banks assess the implications of the new guidance, they should consider the following questions related to trends reshaping model risk management.

The evolution of model risk management

1. How can banks tailor model risk management to model risk?

Rather than applying uniform requirements across all models, banks should focus model risk management activities where risk is greatest. The revised guidance gives institutions greater flexibility to tailor oversight according to the risk posed by a model. Many banks have already introduced new lowest/de minimis risk tiers to better differentiate validation requirements. Others are evaluating the scope of certain model types and whether certain low-risk calculations, tools or use cases require similar levels of documentation, model validation and monitoring as business-critical models.

The goal of a more tailored approach is to focus governance, validation and monitoring efforts where model risk is greatest while reducing unnecessary requirements for lower-risk models.

2. Can continuous monitoring more effectively manage model risk?

Financial institutions today are placing greater emphasis on continuous monitoring as model risk can emerge between scheduled reviews and revalidations. Ongoing oversight provides more timely insights into model performance and supports faster risk management decisions. The COVID-19 pandemic, rapid interest rate movements and periods of market stress demonstrated the limitations of relying solely on periodic reviews to detect emerging model issues. The shift from periodic validation and review activities to continuous monitoring reflects the reality that model performance can deteriorate quickly when underlying conditions change and gives firms the ability to assess model performance more frequently using key risk indicators.

Many institutions are investing in dynamic monitoring capabilities, with automated metrics, performance thresholds, escalation triggers and real-time reporting integrated into model risk management capabilities. Continuous monitoring provides earlier and more actionable insights, resulting in a more efficient approach and allowing for less reliance on periodic reviews.

3. How is model validation evolving under the revised guidance?

Model validation is becoming more flexible, more technology enabled and more closely connected to ongoing monitoring activities. The revised guidance creates opportunities to better integrate validation, revalidation, annual reviews and monitoring activities, helping to reduce duplication while maintaining the importance of independent model validation. It also provides greater flexibility in how validation activities are structured and executed.

Model validation is also evolving as many banks are exploring how technology can enhance validation capabilities. Investments in centralized testing platforms, inventory and workflow tools, automated testing libraries, and improved access to development infrastructure may help validation teams improve both efficiency and effectiveness.

4. What does AI model governance require from banks?

Effective AI model governance requires institutions to balance innovation with appropriate risk management and oversight. The adoption of generative AI (GenAI) and agentic AI is expanding model inventories across the industry. While the revised guidance notes that GenAI and agentic AI are outside the formal scope of the guidance, organizations are still expected to apply sound risk management, governance and controls commensurate with the risk posed by such techniques and associated use. Increasingly, banks are relying on the first line of defense to play a more active role in governance, which reflects the proliferation of use cases across firms. Nevertheless, model risk management is expected to continue to play a key role in mitigating the risk of GenAI and agentic AI models, including use case identification, model determination, risk tiering, model validation and usage.

How should banks prepare for the next phase in model risk management?

To prepare for these changes, banks should:

  • Review the classes of models covered under existing governance and control frameworks and identify opportunities to enhance risk-based prioritization of reviews
  • Confirm that approaches are effective, risk based and tailored to address the key risks for each specific use case
  • Reassess roles and responsibilities, particularly within the first line of defense, against the revised guidance and identify areas to improve efficiency while maintaining accountability
  • Evaluate revised risk-based frameworks and approaches relative to requirements in other jurisdictions to identify potential areas of inconsistency, taking into consideration global minimum standards across jurisdictions, with jurisdiction-specific add-ons as needed

The revised guidance is more than a regulatory update. It represents a new phase in how model risk can be governed, providing greater latitude for banks to undertake more risk-based approaches. Banks are moving toward risk-based governance, continuous monitoring, modernized validation activities and governance frameworks that can address AI technologies and a changing global regulatory environment.

Instead of prescriptive requirements, the revised guidance marks a shift toward principles-based oversight that allows firms to tailor their approaches based on the materiality of model risk. As model inventories continue to grow and AI adoption accelerates, organizations that can combine strong governance with risk-based flexibility will be better positioned to manage a growing inventory and variety of use cases.

Summary 

Revised interagency model risk management guidance is prompting banks to rethink how they oversee a growing and more varied set of models. Rather than applying broad, uniform requirements, financial institutions are encouraged to use judgment, prioritize higher-risk uses and strengthen controls where they matter most. This evolution is pushing banks to move to continuous monitoring, streamline validation and prepare governance frameworks for AI and global regulatory complexity. Banks that can adapt to these emerging trends will have more efficient and effective programs.

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