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Somewhat surprisingly, geology has not yet emerged as one of those constraining factors. According to the 2025 EY US oil and gas reserves, production and ESG benchmarking study, the leading 40 companies added more reserves through extension and exploration drilling than the volumes they produced, leading to an organic reserve replacement ratio (RRR) exceeding 100%. Continuing to find new oil reserves is not the issue.
However, continuing to return value to shareholders from those resources presents a different challenge. In 2024, total capital returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks declined for the first time since 2020. This was partly driven by price declines, which helped push pretax results of operations to under $13/barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) — a level reminiscent of post-2020 lows, but not a wholly worrisome figure. Rather, the pull-back in returns to investors was prompted by a doubling of capital expenditures (capex) by these companies — up from $140 billion in 2023 to $292 billion in 2024. This surge was primarily due to a tripling of costs associated with acquiring new acreage through M&A deals, which were heavily equity-based acquisitions. While elements of the recently passed H.R. 1 may provide some tax relief to US oil and gas producers and increase the overall profitability, improving pretax financial performance will require redoubled efforts on cost control.
Efforts to achieve such cost efficiencies through M&A synergies are ongoing, but initial results indicate further progress may be needed. In 2024, production costs per BOE rose 1% for the companies analyzed, even as oil and gas prices fell. This marks the first instance in the five-year study period where production cost trends have diverged from commodity spot prices, highlighting some of the operational challenges often seen in the early years post-M&A transaction. Certain peer groups seem to be faring better than others. Large independents (those with worldwide reserves exceeding 1 billion BOE but lacking oil refining and marketing activities) have emerged as leaders in cost efficiency, maintaining the lowest per BOE costs by consolidating core areas and effectively scaling capital allocation.
The increased cost of M&A also prompted a decline in exploration and development spending. Investor requirements for fiscal discipline have not been lost, placing limits on capex expansion and a prioritization of investments with shorter payout horizons. As a result, the relatively low-risk nature of US unconventional resource will likely remain central to company growth strategies, even as these rising costs allow deepwater and overseas options to increasingly compete for consideration. But navigating the challenges presented by political and trade confrontations, while adapting unconventional business models to a changing competitive landscape, starts with a truly integrated approach to strategic planning.