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The global economy enters 2026 under a cloud of persistent uncertainty and deepening fragmentation. Headline indicators suggest surprising resilience, yet the underlying picture is far more complex. A confluence of supply-side pressures: including renewed trade frictions, restrictive immigration policies, demographic headwinds, geopolitical tensions and accelerating technological change - is reshaping global economic dynamics.
Tariff expansions are already reshaping supply chains and disrupting trade flows, introducing structural inefficiencies and fueling cost pressures. These frictions are unfolding alongside constrained labor supply, just as investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and resilient consumer demand continue to buoy activity. While financial conditions remain broadly supportive, the increasingly divergent fiscal and monetary policies across major economies raises the risk of policy missteps and is fueling pressure on asset prices, currencies and commodities. Against this backdrop, global growth is gradually losing momentum, with uneven regional trajectories and reduced tolerance for shocks.
Join us for a forward-looking discussion of key geoeconomic themes that will shape the year ahead - offering strategic insights for businesses navigating the evolving economic terrain.
Key themes we'll explore:
- Trade frictions and tariff-driven supply chain disruptions
- Restrictive immigration and demographic pressures on labor supply
- AI investment and productivity growth
- Divergent fiscal and monetary policy paths across major economies
- Rising risk of structural inefficiencies and policy missteps
- Sharp regional outlook divergences
- Recognize current factors impacting the global economy and outlook
- Identify likely future scenarios for inflation, growth, interest rates and geopolitical developments
- Determine how to build resilience into your business based on macroeconomic factors
Panelists:
- Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, Ernst & Young LLP
- Marek Rozkrut, EY EU & CESA Chief Economist, EMEIA Economists Unit Head
- David Li, EY Geostrategic Business Group, China Risk Consultant
- Courtney Rickert McCaffrey, EY Global Geostrategic Business Group Insights Leader
Moderator:
- Nadine Mirchandani, EY Global Deputy Vice Chair, EY-Parthenon Global Deputy Leader - Strategy and Transactions