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A winning strategy for industrial firms in asymmetric globalization

Industrial firms face asymmetric globalization as governments reshape competition; leaders win by regionalizing value chains, building resilience, and modernizing talent.


In brief
  • Governments are reshaping the landscape and industrial leaders can win by shifting from defense to offense in asymmetric globalization.
  • Three moves drive outperformance: regionalize value chains, build resilience-led operations, and modernize talent with automation/AI.

The rules of global business are being rewritten in real time. Governments have shifted from setting up the backdrop for competition to actively shaping it — using tariffs, export controls, subsidies and investment screens as strategic tools, even with longstanding allies. Rising tensions, conflict and nationalism are accelerating policy whiplash and injecting new volatility and unpredictability into markets.

As highlighted in the EY 2026 Geopolitical Outlook, new rules, rising scarcity and diverging regional priorities are redefining how, and where, companies compete. This shift is giving rise to asymmetric globalization: a landscape in which access to markets, capital, technology and talent is no longer uniform, but varies sharply by region, sector and geopolitical alignment. Sovereignty first strategies and uneven integration are becoming the norm, a pattern set to intensify over the next 18 months and beyond.

 

The cost of standing still

For industrial leaders, the impact of geopolitical disruption is already material. Supply chain instability, cost inflation, delayed investment and persistent talent shortages are compressing margins and weakening demand. In 2024 alone, industrial manufacturers in the IndustryWeek US 500 experienced a 12.8% decline in net income, erasing $73.3 billion in profit as geopolitical pressures drove costs higher. Yet while many organizations remain anchored in defensive postures — focused on downside protection — leaders who adopt an offense first, opportunity driven mindset are converting volatility into differentiation. This forward‑leaning approach is increasingly critical as headwinds continue to evolve. Continued policy reassessment — including evolving US trade and tariff actions — is reinforcing an increasingly uncertain operating environment, making it harder for many firms to establish stable footing.

 

Shifting strategies to seize the initiative 

Against this uncertain backdrop, leadership success over the next 12–18 months will not be measured solely by who best predicts the geopolitical outcome — but by who acts with speed, flexibility and most of all, decisiveness. The organizations best positioned to pull ahead will be those that turn uncertainty into advantage by following a discrete set of strategies:

The performance case for acting now 

Disruption isn’t just a challenge — it’s an opening to unlock meaningful upside. Advantage now goes to leaders who record their risk posture and rewire their operating model to exploit uneven conditions, treating volatility as fuel. EY research shows that companies that move decisively outperform those that remain defensive:

  • More than 70% of companies that implemented one or more of the three strategic initiatives — regionalized value chains, resilience led operating models or advanced talent models — outperformed the S&P 500 Industrials Index by over 7% (on average) in revenue growth in the following year.

  • 90% of companies that implemented all three initiatives outperformed the index by an average of 8% in revenue growth and 16% in TSR over the same period.

These results reinforce a clear message: In an asymmetric world, advantage accrues to leaders who step forward with an offense first, opportunity driven mindset and convert the same volatility into a source of differentiation.

Proof in practice: leaders moving first

A growing number of forward leaning industrial companies are shifting from defensive postures to offensive strategies — reshaping operating models through advanced technologies, alternative talent models and deeper regional footprints to convert geopolitical uncertainty into sustained growth.

  • Caterpillar is expanding engine production in Indiana to avoid tariffs, capture onshoring incentives and lower costs — building a durable regional moat through workforce investment. (regionalization, talent)

  • Honeywell is localizing next generation avionics and printed circuit board (PCB) production in Kansas, strengthening supply chain security for sensitive products while improving cost and capability scale. (regionalization, resilience)

  • Emerson Electric accelerated its shift to higher margin, software led growth through the AspenTech acquisition — enabling customers to localize supply chains and support reshoring initiatives. (regionalization, resilience)

  • Siemens has deployed AI driven automation, predictive maintenance and digital twins to offset skilled labor shortages and materially improve productivity and uptime — demonstrating how AI‑enabled augmentation converts resilience into performance. (resilience, talent)

  • International Paper has simplified its portfolio and deepened regional integration — most notably in Europe with DS Smith separation — allowing sharper capital allocation and reduced global complexity. (regionalization, portfolio simplification) 

The common thread is unmistakable: these leaders refuse to play defense. By acting with confidence, speed and decisiveness, they are turning geopolitics from a headwind into a competitive edge and positioning themselves to lead the next era of industrial performance.

Preparing for multiple futures in an asymmetric world 

In addition to moving rapidly and decisively to gain a competitive advantage, industrial players will also need to identify their operating landscape and prepare for wide range of geopolitical scenarios — as outlined in EY Future of globalization article. Organizations face multiple, overlapping futures under asymmetric globalization — from renewed international collaboration requiring flexible cross border supply chains (neo-globalism), to regionalization favoring localized production and automation led growth (regionalization), to bloc isolationism and self reliance demanding stronger compliance, diversified sourcing, reshoring and investment in domestic talent. 

Across all scenarios, success hinges on the ability to adapt operating models, governance and talent strategies to rising fragmentation, regulatory divergence and uneven access to markets and resources. Regardless of what scenarios hold true, leaning forward and unlocking upside opportunity will remain a winning strategy for any firm. 

Call to action: how you can win now

1. Rewire the operating model, not just the footprint: 

Regionalization requires more than moving production. Leaders must actively simplify portfolios, reset governance and realign capital to match regional realities — or risk locking in complexity and exposure that competitors are already shedding.

2. Turn resilience into a commercial advantage: 

Resilience is no longer a back‑office concern. Regionally anchored, reliable operations enable faster market access, stronger customer trust and pricing power in volatile environments. Firms that treat resilience as insurance will fall behind those that use it to grow.

3. Redesign work to break the talent constraint: 

Labor scarcity is structural, not cyclical. Leaders must rethink how work gets done — concentrating scarce knowledge, automating at scale and deploying AI‑enabled augmentation — to decouple growth from headcount and sustain execution under pressure.

Leaders are not forecasting geopolitics better, they are acting differently. The winning play, however, is an offensive strategy — one that turns disruption into opportunity. In an asymmetric world, advantage belongs to organizations that commit early, regionalize decisively, modernize talent models and let resilience compound long before the rest of the market reacts. 

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ernst & Young LLP or other members of the global EY organization.

This article is co-authored by Sweta Gupta. Narain Murthy also contributed to this article.

Summary 

Asymmetric globalization is rewriting the rules for industrial firms as governments use tariffs, export controls, subsidies and investment screening to shape competition. Rather than staying defensive, leaders can turn disruption into advantage by acting decisively on three moves: regionalizing value chains (local-for-local production, automation, targeted M&A), building resilience (diversified suppliers, end-to-end visibility, stronger cash discipline), and modernizing talent models (AI, automation and flexible labor). 

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