Global economic outlook: complicated crosscurrents

The global economy is maintaining momentum, but the outlook has rarely been more obscure. Regional trajectories are diverging due to policy desynchronization, trade frictions and structural pressures. Europe and Japan are inching toward recovery while China and Latin America continue to face economic headwinds. Supply-side shocks and strategic ambiguity are defining features. The US economy is decelerating amidst reemerging inflationary pressures. Tariff-induced cost pressures, policy uncertainty, curtailed immigration and elevated interest rates are dampening employment, business investment and household consumption.

Join us as we unpack these drivers of change and discuss actionable insights to help leaders anticipate challenges, seize opportunities and chart a resilient path forward in an increasingly fragmented world.

Our panelists will discuss:

• Global fragmentation: trade and geopolitics in a fragmented world
• US fiscal tightrope: US fiscal outlook
• Immigration drag: how restrictions on net migration constrain the economy
• US inflation reacceleration: renewed price pressures meet fragile supply chains
• Fed policy and independence: solving a Rubik’s Cube amidst political pressures

Panelists:

• Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon US Chief Economist, Ernst & Young LLP
• Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Moderator:

• Ashley Costa, Principal, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP