Public policy spotlight: Six key issues for 2024 US elections

Dive into the issues of the 2024 US election and learn how they could impact the business community.

In brief

• Outcomes of the 2024 elections could change the public policy landscape and impact the priorities of C-suites and boardrooms across the US.
• Policy approaches of Harris and Trump reveal significant differences — and some similarities — that are driving business strategy.

As Election Day draws near, many are considering how outcomes of the 2024 presidential and congressional elections could change the public policy landscape and impact the priorities of C-suites and boardrooms across the US and beyond.

Former President Donald Trump is trying to accomplish an electoral feat that has only been achieved once in US history: regaining the White House after previously losing re-election. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden shook up the election by passing the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris. This is not the first time a sitting president has withdrawn from a re-election campaign (President Lyndon Johnson did so in 1968), but it is the latest point in an election cycle for a president to do so.

As each candidate begins to stake out policy agendas, there are clear policy differences between Harris and Trump. However, their views are somewhat aligned in certain areas, such as concerns about the impacts of technology and policies toward China. In addition, while Harris’ policy priorities are expected to largely reflect those of the Biden-Harris administration, some variances will emerge. How the next administration implements change will be driven by many factors, including the makeup of the next Congress. And, as people are policy, who is confirmed for key government roles in the next administration also will be critical.

The policies of the next president also will be framed by other factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions and the economy. Geopolitical hotspots will highlight tensions between international engagement and isolationist approaches during the remainder of the election cycle and beyond. And polls continue to reveal voter priorities on economic issues such as price fatigue and elevated interest rates.

1. Trade and supply chains:

The Trump and Biden-Harris administrations have been skeptical of free trade and emphasized protecting US manufacturing and supply chains. However, their specific methods and approaches have varied greatly; Harris would likely maintain or increase the Biden administration’s climate focus and emphasize worker protections if elected.

2. Technology:

Tech, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), remains an important policy issue in Washington. Both administrations have recognized AI’s potential, but their approaches to regulating the associated risks differ. The Biden administration issued an executive order (EO) promoting “safe, secure, and trustworthy” AI development, while Trump pledged to rescind this order citing free speech concerns.

3. Tax:

The balance of power in Congress will dictate the fate of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and other tax reform issues. Trump supports a TCJA extension and has expressed support for an even lower corporate rate (15%). Harris has said she will support a plan similar to Biden’s to raise rates on corporations and high-income individuals while preserving current rates for individuals earning less than $400,000. Each candidate is campaigning in favor of the Child Tax Credit and exempting tip income from taxes.

4. Regulatory environment:

Recent presidents of both parties have increasingly relied on executive powers to make policy, causing pendulum swings in regulation. We expect this trend to continue, and the outcome of the upcoming election could significantly change the regulatory environment. However, the next administration will face new constraints on policymaking due to recent Supreme Court decisions limiting regulatory authority.

5. Climate and environment:

The Biden-Harris administration has prioritized climate change policies such as rejoining the Paris Agreement and promoting electric vehicles. If Trump is re-elected, many existing policies may be reversed in favor of those that support fossil fuels over renewables.

6. Workforce:

Harris and Trump both see themselves as a champion of labor and the working class but have different approaches to workforce issues. On immigration, the next president will need to use their executive authority to address immigration challenges — at the border and in terms of legal and illegal immigration — as Congress continues to struggle to pass new legislation. Issues like diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives continue to be contentious, with the candidates holding very different views on these topics. Expect immigration and DEI to be divisive issues on the campaign trail.

Beyond the White House

Beyond the presidential election, there are a number of factors influencing US public policy, including pivotal Supreme Court decisions that limit the authority of federal agencies and could lead to a more cumbersome regulatory process. The composition of Congress is also critical, with the potential for a shift in control following the elections, which would significantly affect legislative agendas and the confirmation of political appointees. Furthermore, states are increasingly taking the lead on policymaking, particularly in areas of gridlock at the federal level, which may result in a patchwork of regulations that stakeholders will find challenging to navigate.

Conclusion

As we navigate the 2024 election cycle, there are certainly stark differences between the parties and candidates. However, there are also several areas of alignment where the business community may see a continuation of policy regardless of who the next president may be. While the president’s agenda will be a significant factor, which party controls Congress, state governments’ responses and court decisions will also be important in shaping the contours of the public policy landscape for 2025 and beyond. And, of course, the economy and geopolitical landscape will continue to be important drivers of any president’s agenda.